Climate change, population growth, poor water management practices, overexploitation of water resources and the war have contributed to water scarcity, groundwater depletion and saltwater intrusion to many Yemeni aquifers, including Tuban Delta. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to assess present and future water supply needs, water demands, the impact of climate change on these and its risks under different socioeconomic and climatic scenarios.
Based on collaboration between different stakeholders, including local communities, the research that comprises this report was conducted using a combined method including field visits to the various regions of Tuban Delta, remote sensing to fill gaps in data, assessing hydrological conditions and mapping potential climatic risks using climate models HEC-HMS and QGIS.
The findings of this study also served as the foundation for a Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment (CCVA) and recommendations of possible climate adaptation measures/strategies for Tuban Delta.
The results reveal that the water deficit is forecasted to be more than 400 MCM in 2100 under both climatic pathways (SSP3 and SSP5). The improved scenario however shows a less catastrophic outlook, with the forecasted water deficit less than 43 and 10 MCM in 2100 under SSP3 and SSP5 respectively.
In the Lower region of the Tuban deltahowever, both scenarios predict severe water shortages:
The deficit will increase due to climate change and population growth to about 90 MCM in 2025 and 147 MCM in 2050. Thus, the Lower region is forecasted to need additional water resources.
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